Phase Two Never Comes

By Abe Greenwald

Remember phase two of Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan? It’s understandable if you don’t. Phase two vanished into thin air. It made Israel’s withdrawal of troops from the strip contingent on Hamas disarming. We’re eight months into the Gaza cease-fire, and it’s been phase one the whole time. Don’t expect that to change soon. We knew phase two would languish because it required people to do things that they would never do. Namely, Hamas was never going to lay down its weapons.

As it happens, an endless phase-one limbo is manageable for Israel. The IDF is manning posts deep into the strip and can sufficiently monitor Hamas whether or not it disarms. 

The reason I bring up the stalled peace plan is that we’re about to watch something similar happen with Iran. But when progress vanishes this time, the consequences will be worse. The Trump administration has released the details of its memorandum of understanding with the Iranian regime, and it’s just as dumb and dangerous as critics suspected.   

What’s wrong with the MOU is pretty much everything. It seeks to protect Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon from Israel. The U.S. will withdraw military forces, lift its naval blockade, end sanctions on the regime, and unfreeze the regime’s frozen assets. The U.S. also pledges that Iran will get $300 billion “for reconstruction” “as part of a final deal within 60 days.” Iran is supposed to let vessels pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz once again and vows not to pursue a nuclear weapon. But any further discussion of Iranian nukes has been pushed off for another 60 days, and that’s the phase-two dead end.

If the regime refused to conduct detailed and credible negotiations about ending its nuclear program today, it’s certainly not going to feel more pressured to do so 60 days into its second life as the country that beat America. 

Donald Trump didn’t need a war or an MOU to get the Iranians to pledge that they wouldn’t go nuclear. The regime has been saying for decades that it has no interest in pursuing nuclear weapons, with mullahs citing fatwas that supposedly proscribe nukes on Islamic grounds. The whole time, however, they’ve been enriching uranium to levels that are useful in achieving only one thing: making a nuclear explosive.

The regime will never abandon its nuclear quest and never stop lying about it. So once again, the Trump administration is expecting people to do things that they will never do. Hamas was happy to put off talk of disarming to a later date, and Iran is even happier to kick the nuclear can down the road. Both parties know they will never comply. 

But the Iranian regime now enjoys an extra sense of security. Its leaders know that the U.S. is making a mad dash for the exits and plans never to look back. Trump says that he’ll bomb Iran again if it doesn’t comply with the agreement as outlined. The problem is that he’s taught Tehran to read such threats as signs of surrender. And Iran’s leaders are additionally aware that the U.S. has stood idly by and done nothing while the regime dug missiles out of cratered tunnels during the “cease-fire.” All parties’ intentions are now as clear as can be. The U.S. is heading out, and Iran is moving forward.    

Trump also claims that if the deal goes bad, he’ll blame Vice President JD Vance, who’s taken the lead on it. But that’s not true. When the deal goes bad, Trump just won’t acknowledge it. It will be another, scarier open-ended phase one.  

Abe Greenwald is the executive editor of COMMENTARY.